Arsenal’s Premier League Title Hopes: Can They Still Challenge in 2024-25?

-

Arsenal's Title Hopes in the 2024-25 Season

Image Credit: Mikel Arteta managing Arsenal F.C. in 2021 (Prime Video AU & NZ, CC BY 3.0)

As the Premier League season unfolds, Arsenal's chances of winning the title have become increasingly challenging. Despite their strong defensive performance, injuries and recent setbacks have hindered their progress. Here’s an in-depth analysis of their defensive and forward statistics, along with an assessment of their title prospects.

Defensive Strength

Arsenal has built a reputation for defensive solidity this season, significantly improving from previous campaigns. Their defensive statistics highlight their resilience:

  • Goals Conceded: Arsenal has conceded the fewest goals in the league, on pace to allow fewer than 28 goals this season, a vast improvement from the 43 conceded in the 2022-23 season.

  • Open-Play Goals Conceded: Leading the league with only 13 open-play goals conceded.

  • xGA (Expected Goals Against) per Game: Arsenal has the lowest xGA in the league at just 0.65 per game, meaning they allow the fewest high-quality scoring chances.

  • Clean Sheets: Projected to achieve over 19 clean sheets, showcasing their defensive discipline.

  • Shots on Target Faced per Game: Arsenal faces just 9.5 shots on target per game, the lowest in the league, indicating strong defensive control.

Offensive Concerns

While Arsenal’s defense has been rock-solid, their attacking efficiency has declined, affecting their title push.

  • Goals Scored: Arsenal has scored 38 goals in 19 games, slightly down from last season’s pace.

  • Injuries: Key attackers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are sidelined, significantly impacting their attacking potency.

  • xG Difference: Compared to last season, Arsenal's xG (Expected Goals) difference has regressed, indicating reduced efficiency in creating and converting scoring opportunities.

Title Prospects

Arsenal currently sits second in the league, trailing Liverpool by a significant margin. Several factors indicate their title hopes are fading:

  • Current Standings: Arsenal is behind Liverpool by multiple points, making a title charge increasingly difficult.

  • Opta Supercomputer Predictions: Arsenal’s title chances have dropped to just 3.31% following recent setbacks.

  • Liverpool’s Form: Arsenal would need Liverpool to drop points, which seems unlikely given their consistency.

  • Injury Impact: The absence of key attackers has forced Arsenal to rely more on their defensive strengths rather than attacking dominance.

Can Arsenal Still Win the League?

Realistically, it is highly unlikely. Arsenal would need a dramatic turnaround in form, coupled with a significant collapse from Liverpool. Here’s why:

  • Liverpool’s Lead: Liverpool is 13 points clear of Arsenal with just 10 matches left.

  • Historical Precedent: No team has lost the title from such a dominant position this late in the season.

  • Liverpool’s Consistency: They have lost only once in the league and show no signs of a decline.

  • Home Advantage: Six of Liverpool’s remaining 10 fixtures are at Anfield, where they have only lost once this season.

  • Statistical Probability: Opta estimates Liverpool has a 98.7% chance of winning the title, leaving Arsenal with just a 1.3% chance.

  • Arsenal’s Form: Arsenal has failed to win in three consecutive league matches, making a comeback even harder.

While mathematically possible, Arsenal’s title chances remain extremely low unless Liverpool unexpectedly drops points.

Remaining Fixtures

Both Arsenal and Liverpool have crucial games ahead. Here’s a look at their key remaining fixtures:

Liverpool’s Key Fixtures:

  • Southampton (H) – March 8

  • Everton (H) – April 2

  • Fulham (A) – April 5

  • West Ham (H) – April 12

  • Leicester (A) – April 19

  • Tottenham (H) – April 26

  • Chelsea (A) – May 3

  • Arsenal (H) – May 10

  • Brighton (A) – May 18

  • Crystal Palace (H) – May 25

Arsenal’s Key Fixtures:

  • Nottingham Forest (A) – February 26

  • Manchester United (A) – March 9

  • Chelsea (H) – March 16

  • Fulham (H) – April 1

  • Everton (A) – April 5

  • Brentford (H) – April 12

  • Ipswich (A) – April 19

  • Crystal Palace (H) – April 26

  • Bournemouth (H) – May 3

  • Liverpool (A) – May 10

  • Newcastle (H) – May 18

  • Southampton (A) – May 25

The May 10 clash between Arsenal and Liverpool could be pivotal if Arsenal can close the gap before then, but it remains a long shot.

Final Verdict

Arsenal’s defensive excellence has kept them in contention, but injuries and attacking struggles have severely hurt their title challenge. Liverpool’s dominance and consistency make it incredibly difficult for Arsenal to overtake them.

Barring an unexpected collapse from Liverpool, Arsenal’s best realistic outcome is a second-place finish and Champions League qualification—a commendable achievement for Mikel Arteta’s side. However, with the right reinforcements and improved squad depth, Arsenal could mount a stronger title challenge next season.

While the dream of a Premier League title remains alive in theory, the harsh reality is that Liverpool remains the overwhelming favorite to lift the trophy in 2024-25.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Alexander Isak at Newcastle United: A Striker’s Evolution

-
Image
The Rise of Alexander Isak: Newcastle’s Star Striker Photo by Rolandhino1, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Alexander Isak has become one of the most thrilling forwards in European football. With his speed, technique, and finishing ability, Isak has quickly become a fan favorite in the Premier League. From a young star in Sweden to Newcastle United’s record-breaking striker, his journey is a powerful tale of perseverance and rising stardom. Early Beginnings in Sweden Born on September 21, 1999, in Solna, Sweden, Alexander Isak grew up in a football-loving family of Eritrean heritage. His passion for the sport was evident from a young age, and he joined AIK Fotboll’s youth academy as a child. His natural ability, combined with his work ethic, quickly set him apart from his peers. By the time he was 16 years old, Isak had developed into a tall, technically gifted forward with a keen eye for goal. His intelligence on the pitch, ability to read the game, and exceptional ...
Read more

Mohamed Salah's Liverpool Future: New Contract or Saudi Move?

-
Image
Mohamed Salah: The Future of Liverpool's Star Man Image by anwo00 on Pixabay Mohamed Salah has been a transformative figure for Liverpool Football Club since his arrival on July 1, 2017 . Affectionately known as the Egyptian King , Salah has consistently delivered standout performances on the pitch, earning his place among the Premier League’s all-time greats. 🔥 Salah's Legacy at Liverpool Premier League Appearances: 278 Goals: 174 Assists: 81 His incredible goal-scoring record and ability to create chances have made him irreplaceable in Jürgen Klopp’s system. In the current 2024/25 season , Salah has already netted 18 goals in just 20 appearances , proving he remains at the peak of his powers. 📝 Contract Situation: What's Next? Salah’s current contract is set to expire at the end of this season , and while reports suggest that he may sign an extension, no official confirmation has been made yet. This raises several pressing questions: Will Liverpo...
Read more

Mohamed Salah’s Ballon d’Or Bid: Breaking Records, Chasing Glory

-
Image
Can Mohamed Salah Win the Ballon d'Or? A Look at His Historic Season Photo by Harshil Suthar on Pexels . Mohamed Salah continues to dazzle fans with his incredible performances this season. From breaking past top defenses to topping the charts in both goals and assists, the Egyptian star is making headlines once again. But a question now echoes across football circles— does Salah deserve the Ballon d’Or? Salah’s Impact: A Season to Remember In a thrilling display against Tottenham, Salah scored twice and completely outshone defenders. With 11 assists already to his name, he currently leads the league in creativity while staying neck and neck in the Golden Boot race. But what truly sets him apart this season are the historic milestones he's been hitting. Unmatched Consistency and Records Let’s break down some eye-opening stats that highlight why Salah’s 2023-24 campaign deserves recognition on a global level: 🔥 First to Reach Double Figures in both goals and assists...
Read more