Can Manchester City Still Make the Top Four? Breaking Down Their Decline

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Manchester City's Recent Form: Understanding the Decline



Image Credit: Steffen Prößdorf, cropped by ArsenalGhanaPartey / CC BY-SA 4.0

Manchester City, one of the most dominant teams in the Premier League, has faced significant challenges during the 2024-25 season. Their recent form has been inconsistent, raising concerns about their ability to secure a Champions Lueague spot. Here’s an in-depth look at their struggles, key statistics, and tactical shifts.

Recent Form Statistics

  • Premier League Standings: Manchester City is currently fifth in the league, with 14 wins, 14 draws, and 9 losses from 28 matches.
  • Recent Results:
    • A 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest exposed their struggles with consistency.
    • A 2-2 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion was another missed opportunity to climb the table.
  • Goals Conceded: City has conceded 40 league goals this season—unusually high for a team of their caliber.

Factors Contributing to the Decline

1. Injuries and Squad Depth

Key injuries have weakened the squad:

  • Midfield & Attack: Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, and Jeremy Doku have all faced fitness issues.
  • Defense: John Stones, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, and Nathan Ake have been sidelined, disrupting defensive stability.

2. Tactical Vulnerabilities

  • Poor box defending and an inefficient high press have hurt City.
  • They have been particularly vulnerable to crosses, conceding the joint-most goals from back-post deliveries.

3. Statistical Anomalies

  • For the first time under Guardiola, City has an expected goals (xG) deficit, meaning they are conceding better chances than they create.

4. Off-Field Challenges

  • Manchester City is facing a legal battle over alleged breaches of Premier League financial fair play rules.
  • The outcome of this case could impact their future, including potential fines or even expulsion.

5. Transfer Activity & Integration

  • Despite heavy spending, including the signing of Nico Gonzalez, performances have remained inconsistent.
  • Integrating new players while addressing existing issues remains a challenge.

Tactical Adjustments Under Guardiola

Despite their struggles, Guardiola has made several tactical changes to revive City’s form.

1. Shift Towards Direct Football

  • Long Passes: Guardiola has introduced more long balls, bypassing midfield to attack quickly.
    • Example: Omar Marmoush’s goal in the 4-0 win over Newcastle came from an Ederson long pass.
  • Use of Speedy Forwards: Players like Marmoush and Erling Haaland are making more runs behind defenses to exploit space.

2. Formation Adjustments

  • 3-2-4-1 Shape: Allows greater width and flexibility in attack.
  • Inverted Fullbacks: Players like Rico Lewis move into midfield, aiding build-up play.

3. Midfield Reinforcements

  • Nico Gonzalez has been instrumental in controlling tempo, acting as a "mini-Rodri."
  • Rodri's absence has disrupted City's usual midfield control.

4. Pressing and Counter-Pressing

  • City's high press has been less effective, allowing opponents more time on the ball.
  • At times, City has been too passive, failing to coordinate pressing efforts.

5. Adaptation to Opponents

  • City has experimented with compact formations like 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 to enhance defensive stability.
  • Tactical tweaks have had mixed results, as teams no longer fear City’s possession-based style.

Is Pep Guardiola's Job at Risk?

Despite City's struggles, Pep Guardiola's sacking remains unlikely.

Key Reasons:

✅ Contract Extension: Guardiola recently extended his contract until 2027, signaling the club’s long-term faith in him.
✅ Board Support: Club owners, led by Khaldoon Al Mubarak and Sheikh Mansour, remain fully behind him.
✅ Performance Pressure: Guardiola acknowledges the need for improvement, especially after a poor run where City had only one win in ten games.

Guardiola’s Stance

  • He has admitted that his job could be at risk if results don’t improve.
  • However, he has also ruled out resigning, stating he would regret abandoning the challenge.

Final Verdict: Unless City suffers a drastic collapse, Guardiola is expected to remain in charge, with the full backing of the board.

Conclusion

Manchester City’s season has been marred by injuries, tactical issues, and off-field distractions. With nine games remaining, Guardiola is treating each match as a "final" in their push for a Champions League spot.

The upcoming fixtures will define their season—will City bounce back, or is this the beginning of a long-term decline?

What do you think? Can City recover, or is their dominance fading? Drop your thoughts in the comments!

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